PNPs grapple with slashed provincial immigration targets
Provincial immigration ministers from both Manitoba and Newfoundland and Labrador have expressed their desire to welcome more immigrants than their 2025 allocation, in the face of greatly reduced provincial immigration targets.
This news comes alongside the postponed re-opening of the Northwest Territories Provincial Nominee Program (NTNP), which had planned to accept 100 applications for provincial nomination by January 16, 2025.
The New Brunswick Provincial Nominee Program (NBPNP) also announced an adjustment to its 2025 provincial economic immigration programs “in view of overall changes to Canada’s immigration system...”.
Newcomers wishing to apply for Canadian immigration through a Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) may see delays in application intakes, as PNPs grapple with greatly reduced provincial immigration targets and allocations.
To date no province, with the exception of Manitoba, has held a provincial immigration draw in 2025.
This article will cover the macro trends underlying the pause in provincial immigration activity and planned provincial immigration throughout 2025.
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Provincial immigration cut in half
Immigration levels for a year are confirmed in October of the year prior, under the annual Immigration Levels Plan.
In 2024, Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced that he would be reducing admissions* allocations to Canada’s PNPs in 2025, by 50% (relative to 2024’s overall total).
* The Immigration Plan outlines admissions, not Invitations to Apply (ITAs). An admission, or landing, refers to the final interview with an immigration officer, conducted either at a port of entry or a local office in Canada. During this interview, the applicant signs their confirmation of permanent residence (COPR) and officially becomes a permanent resident. While this process can also be completed electronically, it always requires the approved immigrant to arrive in Canada to finalize their PR status. Admissions may also be referred to as “landings”.
Prior to the announcement of the 2025-2027 Levels Plan, Canada’s PNPs were set to cumulatively be the country’s largest intake of economic immigrants—even outpacing federal immigration admissions targets through Express Entry.
The following table breaks down the projected targets against current targets:
| Year | Projected provincial immigration targets | Actual provincial immigration targets |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 110,000 | 110,000 |
| 2025 | 120,000 | 55,000 |
| 2026 | 55,000 |
As a possible counterweight to the greatly reduced provincial levels, IRCC also announced a sub-category under its federal immigration allocation known as the “In-Canada Focus” category. Under this category, IRCC prioritizes the invitation of Express Entry candidates in the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) program (managed under Express Entry) and those in enhanced PNPs. The In-Canada Focus category has been allocated 82,890 admissions in 2025.
While the inclusion of this category will allow more immigrants to be nominated by provincial governments to settle in their provinces, it likely will not account for the reduced targets.
Due to the fact that immigration in Canada is regulated at the federal level, provincial governments must accept the levels and allocations announced by the federal government yearly. As a result of these changes, Canada’s PNPs must now prepare to welcome far fewer new immigrants than they could last year—a change with the potential to yield economic challenges due to the important role that newcomers play in filling key labour shortages in communities across Canada.
While it remains difficult to speculate what changes will be made, Canada’s provincial immigration ministers must prepare for a vastly different landscape for regional and provincial immigration in 2025.
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